Raheem Sterling is exactly the player Arsenal needed this season
The former Manchester City star struggled at Chelsea, but in Mikel Arteta's Arsenal side we should see the (former?) England international look back to his best in front of goal.
One of the most intriguing summer transfers in the Premier League was Raheem Sterling’s departure from Chelsea for Arsenal. Rarely have we seen a player so unwanted by one top club but undoubtedly desired by another. So much so that the Stamford Bridge side seem happy to continue paying most of Sterling’s wages, while simultaneously Mikel Arteta’s is most likely delighted to have a player of the forward’s calibre in his squad for this season’s league campaign. In a weird turn of events, Sterling is surplus to requirements for a team that may struggle to finish in the top six, but could be exactly what his new team needs to finally beat Manchester City to the league title.
In many ways, both can actually be true. As paradoxical as it may sound, Sterling could prove to be better suited to Arsenal’s style of play than he was at Chelsea. This is due to the fact that despite initially bursting on to the scene as a quick winger that could dance around defenders at Liverpool, Sterling ultimately matured into an excellent wide forward that specialises in scoring goals in the box. As a result, his uses only become clear when you can get him as close to the opposing box as possible and put the ball at his feet. In a box-to-box side like Chelsea, Sterling spent far too much time out wide, playing as a more traditional winger tasked with facilitating Nicolas Jackson or Cole Palmer. But at Arsenal, Arteta will surely look to restore him to his previous role as a primary goalscorer, who waits in the box for service. Just as he did at Man City for so many years.
Why Sterling didn’t work out at Chelsea
If we take a look at Sterling’s non-penalty xG [expected goals] and corresponding goals over the last seven years in the Premier League, we can see that he remains a pretty potent goalscorer. At the height of his powers at Man City, Sterling over-performed compared to his xG and has somewhat reverted back to the mean since then, but the minimal space between the two lines on the graph certainly indicates that he remains a player that still scores the chances that are presented to him. The only issue is whether or not you can get him in the right areas of the pitch to stick the ball in the back of the net.
As we can see in the graph, Sterling’s goals per 90 dropped significantly during his first season at Chelsea and to no great surprise that corresponded with a 28% drop in his average touches of the ball in the box from his last season at Man City to his debut season at Stamford Bridge. So much so that on average Sterling touched the ball three fewer times per game in the 22/23 season than he had done the season before. This shift in the player’s role on the pitch can also be seen when we consider where he was taking his shots for Chelsea. In the player’s final three seasons at Man City, just 17% of his total shots came from outside the box in Pep Guardiola’s team, but over the course of his two seasons at Chelsea that number jumped up to a notable 22% of his total shots. And in his final season at the club his shots from outside the box rose to an even higher 25% of the shots taken from open play. While some of that could be chalked up to playing in a different team and adjusting to his new surroundings, such a drastic change undoubtedly hints at Sterling simply not being played close enough to the opposing box and as a result in his preferred role.
Where Sterling fits in at Arsenal
This, unquestionably, is something that Arteta will look to put right at the Emirates this season. Unlike Chelsea, who have a clear No.9 and wide players to facilitate him on either wing, Arsenal typically play with a false No.9 in Kai Havertz or at the very least an extremely mobile striker in Gabriel Jesus who tends to wander in and out of the box. This not only makes the team harder to defend against, but also means every player has to chip in with their fair share of goals. Which is why we saw Bukayo Saka, Havertz and Leandro Trossard all get into the double figures for goals in the Premier League last season.
However, there was one notable omission from that list: Arsenal’s left winger Gabriel Martinelli. Last season the Brazilian winger managed to score just six goals in 24 league appearances and averaged just 0.27 goals per 90 - which was almost half the rate of Saka and, interestingly enough, even less than what Sterling averaged at Chelsea (0.36). This, potentially, could be down to Martinelli struggling to get over a hamstring injury he picked up a few weeks into the season or simply being out of form after an impressive campaign in 22/23 which saw him bag 15 goals in 36 games. But either way, it’s clear that Arteta was desperate to bring in another player that could not only step in when Martinelli looked jaded but could also, perhaps more importantly, score goals.
These goals could prove to be the crucial factor in Arsenal’s clashes with the top-four sides in the Premier League or knock-out rounds of the Champions League. Across six games against their other top-four opponents in the league last season and four knock-out games in Europe, Arteta’s side scored just eight goals. And of those eight goals, three came from players coming off the bench to score late on in games - with Saka managing just two, while Havertz and Ødegaard failed to score a single goal. That not only shows that Arsenal simply didn’t score enough goals in these big games but also underlines why Arteta needs more options from the bench.
With all that in mind, it’s not hard to see why Arteta thinks Sterling can plug a number of holes in Arsenal’s team this season. Not only could he prove to be a better option on the left wing if Martinelli doesn’t bounce back from a poor campaign last season, but he could also be the perfect impact sub to come on and make a difference in Arsenal’s crucial games against Liverpool and Man City, or indeed their quest to break new ground in the Champions League.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that Sterling will thrive at Arsenal. But having previously worked under Arteta at Man City and Arsenal’s own apparent eagerness to emulate the way Guardiola’s team win games, Sterling should feel right at home in an Arsenal shirt this season. And if he can get back to what he did so well for Man City just a few seasons ago, he could be the very man that ends their dominance of the Premier League.
I appreciate the figures, but one question comes to mind: if Sterling can improve Arsenal's scoring ability, does it mean other attackers have been wasting chances?