Could Harvey Elliott be Liverpool's long-term replacement for Mohamed Salah?

The 20-year-old jack-of-all-trades has been a victim of his own versatility at Anfield, but deserves a chance to prove himself on the right wing for Arne Slot's side next season.

Due to the seemingly never-ending churn of the transfer window, it’s only natural that the arrival of a new head coach at one of the Premier League’s biggest clubs would set the heather ablaze with speculation over the manner in which Arne Slot could empty Liverpool’s bank account to bring in new signings. Despite a clear policy of under-spending compared to their domestic rivals for the past nine seasons, reports would suggest that the transfer market has a solution to each of Liverpool’s problems. 

Perhaps the most pressing concern for Slot to contend with ahead of the new season will be what to do with Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian international didn’t have a bad season at all on paper - 18 goals and 10 assists in 32 league games - but few season ticket holders in the Kop would deny that the 32-year-old forward spent much of the campaign looking jaded and far from his best on and off the ball. And considering that Salah started 74% of Liverpool’s league games and either scored or assisted 33% of their Premier League goals last season, it means Slot may be worryingly over-reliant on an ageing player that certainly seems to be slowing down. The Anfield club need some sort of back-up plan for the right wing next season and, luckily, the solution to their problems may be staring them right in the face. And since you’ve already read the title of this newsletter, you know exactly who I’m talking about. 

More than a midfielder 

Although Harvey Elliott spent most of last season playing in midfield, there are a number of aspects about the young player’s game that suggest he could develop into a fantastic right winger for Liverpool in the coming years. For example, while he may have technically played a central role in 24 of his 34 league appearances last season, his WyScout heat map for the league campaign clearly shows a player that typically drifted out wide for space. And, perhaps most notably, when Jürgen Klopp was left looking for an alternative to Salah on the right wing, he often turned to Elliott - as we saw in the 4-1 win over Luton, the 1-0 win over Nottingham Forest and the 1-1 draw with Manchester City in late February and early March. 

Harvey Elliott’s Premier League heat map for this season (WyScout)

Despite playing well, Elliott was somewhat a victim of his own versatility and found himself slotted back into centre midfield or back on the bench as an impact sub once Salah returned to the team. Which is something that Klopp made a point of noting as a big regret of his once the campaign had drawn to a close. “But if I regret one thing a little bit it’s that Harvey didn’t play often enough maybe,” said Klopp in one of his final press conferences as Liverpool manager. “Because in a very important, intense period – January, a lot of injuries – he played really good. He was probably our best player, right wing, right midfield, all these kinds of things. Everybody came back and he had minutes here, minutes there and he didn’t start anymore, came on, big impact.”

Even when we take a look at Elliott’s stats compared to Liverpool’s other central midfielders, we find a player that is far more attack-minded than your typical central midfielder. For example, over the course of the Premier League season Elliott averaged 2.47 key passes per 90 minutes, which is higher than all of Liverpool’s other central midfielders and almost twice what Ryan Gravenerbech and Alexis Mac Allister typical averaged. Elliott also averaged more shots on goal than Liverpool’s four other central midfielders and managed more passes and crosses into the box than Curtis Jones and Gravenberch’s combined total. Of course, these figures are slightly skewed by him playing on the wing in a handful of games, but they still showcase a player that has a clear eye for goal. 

Liverpool’s next right winger?

Perhaps the most obvious reason why Elliott is capable of developing into an excellent winger for Liverpool is the simple fact that he’s already shown what he can do on the wing, despite his relatively short career to date. Three seasons ago, while on loan at Blackburn in the Championship, an 18-year-old Elliott took the English second-tier by storm, bagging seven goals and 11 assists over the course of the league campaign. And, fascinatingly enough, since returning to Liverpool Elliott has slowly but surely working up to those Championship numbers at a Premier League level. 

For example, when we look at Elliott’s average xG+xA per league game over the last four seasons, we can see a small dip when he returned to Liverpool and was finding his feet, then a return to the kind of numbers he was showing at Blackburn for Klopp’s team this season. In fact, Elliott’s xG+xA per 90 stats in the Premier League this season were the sixth best in Liverpool’s squad and the best outside of the club’s five forward players. Had Elliott been afforded more time on the right wing there’s little doubt that his average would have been far closer to the likes of Luis Diaz, Cody Gakpo and Diogo Jota. When it came to actual non-penalty goals and assists in the league, Elliott actually leapfrogged Diaz and finished fifth in Klopp’s team. 

So could the young England talent really be a long-term replacement for Salah? To date, over the course of 76 appearances in the Premier League, Elliott has averaged 0.32 non-penalty goals and assists per 90. Which is considerably less than Salah’s average of 0.85 per 90 after 263 games. But there are some suggestions that Elliott could grow into the kind of player that could perhaps match Salah’s goal contributions in the years to come. 

What makes Elliott such an exciting talent is that he’s capable of creating goals and scoring them in equal measure, much like Salah already does for Liverpool. For example, in the Premier League this season Elliott either passed or crossed the ball into the opposing box on 56 occasions. Despite sitting 14th in Liverpool’s squad for league minutes played, the 20-year-old came second only to Salah for sticking the ball in the box. And, remarkably enough, when we break that down to averages per game, Elliott actually comes out on top among all other Liverpool midfielders and forwards with 3.73 passes or crosses into the box per 90. In other words, the young talent may well be Liverpool’s best source for getting the ball into the box to set up other players in front of goal. And a natural successor to Salah’s current role of playmaker-in-chief in Liverpool’s team.

Elliott also possesses a remarkable ability to pick out shots with his left foot, much like Salah. The young talent finished the season fourth - notably ahead of Jota, Diaz and just behind Gakpo - for shots per 90 minutes. But what’s perhaps most impressive about Elliott’s shooting is that his shots on target per 90 have more than doubled from 0.46 to 1.07 per 90 in the last four seasons. Again, in this metric Elliott comes up just short behind Liverpool’s five forward players but is just behind Diaz (1.10), despite spending much of the season in midfield and his typical shot being six yards further back than the Colombian forward’s. Needless to say, if Elliott is afforded more time in the final third and given the opportunity to cut inside off the right wing, his shooting stats could easily match Liverpool’s other forward players next season. 

At the end of the day, the chances of Liverpool finding another player to do what Salah has done for them over the last seven years are pretty slim. The Egyptian player is a generational talent and one of Liverpool’s greatest ever players. But in Elliott the Anfield club have a young talent that could perhaps go a long way to replacing Salah, if given the time and space to develop his game as a right winger. Whether his new manager feels the same way remains to be seen.