How Sandro Tonali turned Newcastle's season around

Eddie Howe's team have looked back to their best over the last few months and that's almost entirely down to the return of the Italian midfielder.

Following their 2-1 win over Tottenham on Saturday, Newcastle made it five wins from their last five games in the Premier League and suddenly look like a team that are ready to compete for the top four in the second half of the season.

There was a lot going on in this game and much of it was down to the blatant holes in Spurs’ starting XI, but in this newsletter I wanted to instead focus on what Newcastle have done well in recent weeks. And why I think the return of one player in particular has really turned their season around.

To no great surprise, that player is of course Sandro Tonali. After returning from his suspension at the start of the season, it took the Italian midfielder some time to get back to match fitness. Over the course of Newcastle’s first 10 league games of the season, the central midfielder started just four of his team’s matches and didn’t really nail down his former starting position in Eddie Howe’s side until the 1-1 clash with Crystal Palace in late November.

Coincidentally, Newcastle haven’t actually lost a game in which Tonali has started since the 2-1 defeat to Chelsea in late October. But the real reason why the team looks so much better with the Italian midfielder in the middle of the park is down to how he’s allowed Bruno Guimarães to move forward and slot back into his preferred no.10 position.

As we saw against Spurs on Saturday, the Brazilian midfielder is back to playing a more attacking role for Howe’s side. Not only did he set up Newcastle’s first goal, but he was a constant threat with runs and passes into the Tottenham box. And that’s what we’ve seen time and time again since Tonali returned to the team.

For example, prior to Tonali properly returning to a starting role, Guimarães had managed just one assist and no goals at all in 12 league games. But since then, he’s bagged five goals and assists in eight league games. And when we dig a little deeper into the underlying stats we can see further proof of the Brazilian playing a more attacking role for Newcastle.

Alongside the improved goals and assists, Guimarães’ key passes per game have also risen from 1.08 to 1.88 since Tonali started alongside him in the Premier League. In fact, the Brazilian midfielder made more key passes than any Newcastle player in Saturday’s game. However, perhaps the most intriguing change in the midfielder’s game is how many touches he’s making in the final third and opposing box in recent months.

As we can see in the graph, from matchday 13 onwards, there is a clear rise in the number of touches Guimarães has been making in and around the box. So much so that prior to Tonali returning to the team in a starting role, the Brazilian midfielder was averaging just 13.9 touches in the final third and box per game, but following the Italian’s return, Guimarães is averaging 22.3 per game. Which works out at a massive 60% increase in touches for the Brazilian midfielder in attacking areas.

To no great surprise, we’ve also seen Newcastle’s attacking three of Anthony Gordon, Jacob Murphy and Alexander Isak thrive with the support of Guimarães in the final third. Not only has Murphy looked back to his best and in return finally offering Newcastle a proper attacking outlet on the right wing, but Isak has returned to form in front of goal. Prior to matchday 13 the Swedish striker managed just four goals in 12 games, but since then has bagged nine goals in eight league games.

So, as we can see, Tonali at the base of Newcastle’s midfield has allowed Guimarães to return to a more attacking role for Newcastle. And in return Howe’s attacking line has clicked back into gear and are scoring goals for fun. But there’s also the defensive aspect of Tonali’s game that has been crucial to the team’s impressive run of form in recent months.

In their last five league games, Newcastle have conceded just one goal and while much of that is undoubtedly down to the form of the team’s defenders, it’s worth noting that Tonali has quickly risen to the top of his team’s charts for tackles and interceptions per game and is now averaging more than any other midfielder in the team aside from Sean Longstaff.

While I’m not sure I’d ever define Tonali as a defensive midfielder - I’d actually say he’s more underrated as a playmaker - his presence in the middle of the pitch has clearly helped Newcastle shore up their defence. And, alongside that, allow Howe to push Guimarães back up the pitch to sort out the team’s misfiring attacking line.

Of course, there are tougher games to come for Newcastle in the coming months - such as the League Cup double-header against Arsenal - then Manchester City, Nottingham Forest and Liverpool in February, but before that they have four games against teams fighting for relegation and surprise rivals for a top four spot come May.

Howe’s team couldn’t have picked a better time to return to form and while football is a team sport at the end of the day, when it comes to Newcastle surging back up the league table a lot of it can be put down to the return of Tonali and his remarkable talents in the middle of the pitch.