Nice piece. Not sure Brighton would agree they've changed policy: they're still investing in young talent from around the globe. But as their talent evolves so the cost of replacing them almost inevitably increases, unless you are prepared to accept a big drop in quality. In short, it's easier (and cheaper) to replace a Bissouma than a Caicedo.
That said, Brighton are also good learners. I think last season taught them that De Zerbi was the wrong man and their poor league form in the second half (19th) indicated a deeper squad would be needed in order to play in Europe.
In context, West Ham were 18th in the PL over the second half of last season. Big investment there coupled with a new coach didn't deliver meaningful improvement. Brighton can be fairly content with finishing ~9th from a similar starting point.
My note of caution would be wage control. Wages have been 66% of turnover for the last two seasons, but if that ratio goes over 80% then the risk of unsustainability increases rapidly.
Thanks for the feedback Paul, and excellent points well made. They're definitely still investing in the young players from around the world, but it's just a question of them still getting game time if more expensive domestic players are also joining the club in the same windows. And the point about the wage ratio is a very interesting one. They spent a lot of money this season. I'm sure they'll be hoping to see some big improvements next season as a result of it.
I think they will want to be in strong contention for EL/ECL places next season, though they could sneak in this season depending on current euro semifinalists winning those competitions.
I think we might also see them join the FFP trading gang (out of choice rather than obligation) at the end of June. Forest gained a big playing advantage from their trading last June, I feel
In a PSR trading gang, Buonanotte and Enciso are PL proven to a certain degree and would generate decent profits. Who they'd get in exchange would depend upon their trading partner(s), of course. But I'm sure Brighton know who they might want.
As to big sales, the obvious candidate is Baleba. Citeh and Liverpool have the money, but the latter has tended not to go quite so big on fees. Though they did pay €85m for Nunez...
Do you reckon their change in transfer policy might have been the result of increased competition coming from other clubs copying their model? Seems even quite a few of the big teams have been scouting players directly from the South and Central American leagues over the last two seasons, maybe beating out Brighton on players they'd have like to sign themselves. Victim of their own success, perhaps?
Oh yeah without a doubt. I mean, you can even look at promoted clubs like Leeds now being financed by big investors that want to bring in outside processes to identify and sign players. So they're definitely up against in in the PL.
I suspect managers also play a part. De Zerbi obviously departed because he wanted more ready-made players and I've heard whispers that Hürzeler is also quite vocal in wanting more short-term solutions too. So the shift in signings may just be a case of trying to entice good managers to the club.
If that was true wouldn’t they have stuck with De Zerbi? Or did his outspokenness make his position untenable, not to mention his stubbornness with choosing his own signings? It’s clear Rutter was a Hürzeler approved signing, but with gaps all over the squad despite its size, could the transfer window test the club’s relationship with Hürzeler?
I can't say if Rutter was a direct request from Hürzeler. Although I'm sure he was well aware of him during Rutter's time at Hoffenheim. FWIW, I think De Zerbi was probably far more outspoken behind closed doors about the type of players he wanted to sign. But that's not to say that Brighton are now signing those players after the fact. It may just be a recognition on their part that they need to spend money on 2-3 such players a season to keep the head coach in that given season happy. But I suspect even Rutter probably isn't who De Zerbi would have had in mind when he wanted "ready made" players.
Thanks for the piece very interesting and well thought out. Although the move to more UK players shows in the data I don’t think one year can necessarily be considered a change in strategy - give it a few years then maybe. Also the players they signed both clearly had growth potential coming from a PSR pressured club and a championship club, had Newcastle not been under cost pressure they wouldn’t have sold Minteh so there was an opportunistic element to this too rather than a change in strategy. I’d also say that the past few years signings from overseas have complimented a base of players who already knew the English leagues which was probably in need of a refresh with Dunk, March etc heading towards retirement age.next season I think will be a big year with the signings having had a year to settle - probably better to judge then
Yeah very fair points Nick. I certainly wouldn’t want to suggest that I’m 100% correct in any of this. Just pulling together some thoughts and opinions. But as you say; it may be an indication of things to come in the coming years or just a few exceptional years.
Brighton are in an interesting spot alright and it will be interesting to see if their transfer policies continue to evolve. Very interesting read thanks
As a Brentford fan, this is interesting. Our model is very similar to Brighton's. I know Matthew Benham and Tony Bloom are not fond of each other, so I'd like to think (hope) that Saint Matthew learns from their mistakes.
Nice piece. Not sure Brighton would agree they've changed policy: they're still investing in young talent from around the globe. But as their talent evolves so the cost of replacing them almost inevitably increases, unless you are prepared to accept a big drop in quality. In short, it's easier (and cheaper) to replace a Bissouma than a Caicedo.
That said, Brighton are also good learners. I think last season taught them that De Zerbi was the wrong man and their poor league form in the second half (19th) indicated a deeper squad would be needed in order to play in Europe.
In context, West Ham were 18th in the PL over the second half of last season. Big investment there coupled with a new coach didn't deliver meaningful improvement. Brighton can be fairly content with finishing ~9th from a similar starting point.
My note of caution would be wage control. Wages have been 66% of turnover for the last two seasons, but if that ratio goes over 80% then the risk of unsustainability increases rapidly.
Thanks for the feedback Paul, and excellent points well made. They're definitely still investing in the young players from around the world, but it's just a question of them still getting game time if more expensive domestic players are also joining the club in the same windows. And the point about the wage ratio is a very interesting one. They spent a lot of money this season. I'm sure they'll be hoping to see some big improvements next season as a result of it.
I think they will want to be in strong contention for EL/ECL places next season, though they could sneak in this season depending on current euro semifinalists winning those competitions.
I think we might also see them join the FFP trading gang (out of choice rather than obligation) at the end of June. Forest gained a big playing advantage from their trading last June, I feel
Who do you think they’ll depart with?
In a PSR trading gang, Buonanotte and Enciso are PL proven to a certain degree and would generate decent profits. Who they'd get in exchange would depend upon their trading partner(s), of course. But I'm sure Brighton know who they might want.
As to big sales, the obvious candidate is Baleba. Citeh and Liverpool have the money, but the latter has tended not to go quite so big on fees. Though they did pay €85m for Nunez...
I’ve heard rumours about Van Hecke and Ayari having strong suitors also.
Is that the cost of retaining talent? Like a Mitoma for example?
Do you reckon their change in transfer policy might have been the result of increased competition coming from other clubs copying their model? Seems even quite a few of the big teams have been scouting players directly from the South and Central American leagues over the last two seasons, maybe beating out Brighton on players they'd have like to sign themselves. Victim of their own success, perhaps?
Oh yeah without a doubt. I mean, you can even look at promoted clubs like Leeds now being financed by big investors that want to bring in outside processes to identify and sign players. So they're definitely up against in in the PL.
I suspect managers also play a part. De Zerbi obviously departed because he wanted more ready-made players and I've heard whispers that Hürzeler is also quite vocal in wanting more short-term solutions too. So the shift in signings may just be a case of trying to entice good managers to the club.
If that was true wouldn’t they have stuck with De Zerbi? Or did his outspokenness make his position untenable, not to mention his stubbornness with choosing his own signings? It’s clear Rutter was a Hürzeler approved signing, but with gaps all over the squad despite its size, could the transfer window test the club’s relationship with Hürzeler?
I can't say if Rutter was a direct request from Hürzeler. Although I'm sure he was well aware of him during Rutter's time at Hoffenheim. FWIW, I think De Zerbi was probably far more outspoken behind closed doors about the type of players he wanted to sign. But that's not to say that Brighton are now signing those players after the fact. It may just be a recognition on their part that they need to spend money on 2-3 such players a season to keep the head coach in that given season happy. But I suspect even Rutter probably isn't who De Zerbi would have had in mind when he wanted "ready made" players.
Agreed. But we also had quite a few unexpected departures.
Thanks for the piece very interesting and well thought out. Although the move to more UK players shows in the data I don’t think one year can necessarily be considered a change in strategy - give it a few years then maybe. Also the players they signed both clearly had growth potential coming from a PSR pressured club and a championship club, had Newcastle not been under cost pressure they wouldn’t have sold Minteh so there was an opportunistic element to this too rather than a change in strategy. I’d also say that the past few years signings from overseas have complimented a base of players who already knew the English leagues which was probably in need of a refresh with Dunk, March etc heading towards retirement age.next season I think will be a big year with the signings having had a year to settle - probably better to judge then
Yeah very fair points Nick. I certainly wouldn’t want to suggest that I’m 100% correct in any of this. Just pulling together some thoughts and opinions. But as you say; it may be an indication of things to come in the coming years or just a few exceptional years.
Yeah agree, very valid thoughts and points. Keep up the good work!
Brighton are in an interesting spot alright and it will be interesting to see if their transfer policies continue to evolve. Very interesting read thanks
My pleasure and thanks for the kind words.
As a Brentford fan, this is interesting. Our model is very similar to Brighton's. I know Matthew Benham and Tony Bloom are not fond of each other, so I'd like to think (hope) that Saint Matthew learns from their mistakes.